This game is all about perception and the wrong team is favored here. Florida is playing in their home state in Orlando, and to me has all the advantages in a match up between two teams that mirror each other in a lot of ways. Both teams have excellent 1st year head coaches. Both teams have run first mentalities backed by superior defenses. On paper it appears Florida has the better defense and Michigan the better offense. Florida really struggled down the stretch and were ripped apart by the media, but they got healthier for the SEC Championship and hung with Alabama, while Michigan wasnât even close against Ohio State exposing a lot of weaknesses in the Michigan defense.
On paper both of these teams need to run the ball, and I think Florida will have a better opportunity here considering they have a mobile QB that can run the option in Treon Harris. This is a big step up in competition for Jake Rudock. In wins this year Michigan has averaged 4.57 yards per carry and in loses 2.24. Same goes for Florida with 3.74 and 2.15 in losses. The same goes on the defensive side of the ball for both teams. Michigan in wins held opponents to 3.21 ypc and 4.47 in their losses while Florida came in 2.91 ypc allowed in wins, and 4.64 in their losses which I have to mention were against the 3 best running backs in football in Delvin Cook, Leonard Fournette (both should have been Heisman candidates), and the Heisman winner Derrick Henry. Michigan does not have a guy like this and truly lacks any kind of explosive players. So much so that they had to bring defensive players on this side of the ball in Jabrill Peppers.
Strength of schedule factors in here for both sides of the ball because Michigan is some what of a fake strong defense having faced just two teams ranked in the top 50 in yards per play and they gave up 41 and 42 to them while Florida faced 6 top 50 offenses and allowed 19.5 ppg. Florida truly has the most complete defense here. Their pass defense is clearly better with Vernon Hargreaves back there, and the 4th ranked sack % unit, but the run defense is what Iâm impressed with as they faced 8 top 50 units and still finished as one of the best in the nation where Michiganâs defense faced just 3 in the top 50.
Okay, so Michiganâs offense looks better on paper, and especially their running game, but have a look here as Florida faced 9 top 50 run defenses and averaged 22ppg against those. While Michigan faced only 7 and averaged 21 ppg against those. Florida had the better game against a similar strength of opponent in their last game as Florida gave Alabama a fight, but Michigan was dominated by their rival Ohio State. I also donât trust the team thatâs more rusty here and although I have a ton of respect for Jim Harbough this team is not ready to be a 4.5 point favorite against a defense like Florida.
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